pt. I: Solon's warning : skewness, asymmetry, induction. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart? ; A bizarre accounting method ; A mathematical mediation on history ; Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual ; Survival of the least fit : can evolution be fooled by randomness? ; Skewness and asymmetry ; The problem of induction
pt. II. Monkeys on typewriters : survivorship and other biases. Too many millionaires next door ; It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg ; Loser takes all : on the nonlinearities of life ; Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind
pt. III. Wax in my ears : living with randomitis. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box
Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism
Epilogue: Solon told you so.
Acknowledgments for the updated second edition
pt. I. Solon's warning : skewness, asymmetry, induction
1. If you're so rich, why aren't you so smart?
John the high-yield trader
You dentist is rich, very rich
2. A bizarre accounting method
An even more vicious roulette
Solon visits Regine's nightclub
George Will is no Solon : on counterintuitive truths
A different kind of earthquake
3. A mathematical mediation on history
Zorglubs crowding the attic
Skills in predicting past history
Distilled thinking on your PalmPilot
Philostratus in Monte Carlo : on the difference between noise and information
4. Randomness, nonsense, and the scientific intellectual
The father of all pseudothinkers
5. Survival of the least fit, can evolution be fooled by randomness?
Carlos the emerging-markets wizard
John the high-yield trader
The quant who knew computers and equations
A review of market fools of randomness constants
Naive evolutionary theories
Can evolution be fooled by randomness?
6. Skewness and asymmetry
The median is not the message
An arrogant twenty-nine-year-old son
Almost everybody is above average
The mother of all deceptions
Why don't statisticians detect rare events?
A mischievous child replaces the black balls
7. The problem of induction
Sir Karl's promoting agent
pt. II. Monkeys on typewriters : survivorship and other biases
It depends on the number of monkeys
8. Too many millionaires next door
How to stop the sting of failure
Double survivorship biases
9. It is easier to buy and sell than fry an egg
Nobody has to be competent
An interrupted tennis game
Data mining, statistics, and charlatanism
The best book I have ever read!
A more unsettling extension
The earnings season : fooled by the results
Professor Pearson goes to Monte Carlo (literally) : randomness does not look random!
The dog that did not bark : on biases in scientific knowledge
10. Loser takes all, on the nonlinearities of life
Mathematics inside and outside the real world
Buridan's donkey or the good side of randomness
11. Randomness and our mind : we are probability blind
Some architectural considerations
Beware the philosopher bureaucrat
Flawed, not just imperfect
Where is Napoleon when we need him?
"I'm as good as my last trade" and other heuristics
Degree in a fortune cookie
Why we don't marry the first date
Examples of biases in understanding probability
Probabilities and the media (more journalists)
You should be dead by now
The Bloomberg explanations
We do not understand confidence levels
pt. III. Wax in my ears : living with randomitis
The Odyssean mute command
12. Gamblers' ticks and pigeons in a box
Taxi-cab English and causality
The Skinner pigeon experiment
13. Carneades comes to Rome : on probability and skepticism
Probability, the child of skepticism
Monsieur de Norpois' opinions
Path dependence of beliefs
Computing instead of thinking
14. Bacchus abandons Antony
Notes on Jackie O.'s funeral
Randomness and personal elegance
Epilogue. Solon told you so
Beware the London traffic jams
Postscript. Three afterthoughts in the shower
First thought : the inverse skills problem
Second though : on some additional benefits of randomness
Uncertainty and happiness
The scrambling of messages
Third thought : standing on one leg
Acknowledgments for the first edition
A trip to the library : notes and reading recommendations
